• COVID-19 death rate is higher in European countries with a low flu intensity since 2018

    Early in the COVID-19 pandemic I saw some data implying there were of the order of 30,000 people alive in the UK who would have been expected to die in the previous two flu seasons, but who didn’t die as … Continued

  • Voluntary exposure to exit COVID-19 lockdown

    It seems that the government is struggling to agree a plan to relax the drastic lockdown that is presently in place in response to COVID-19 in the UK. Maybe a new option is worth considering. I call it voluntary exposure … Continued

  • US Open tennis scoring gives worse players a bigger boost than at Wimbledon

    Just before Wimbledon I wrote a blog post showing how the weird scoring system in tennis makes it more likely that the worse player will win a match there than if the scoring system were purely based on the number … Continued

  • Feeling the heat…

    The 2018 UK heatwave prompted me to write this short summary of where we are now and what we can do about it: Scientists say that the heatwave scorching the UK, northern Europe and Japan was made more than twice … Continued

  • Anyone for tennis?

    Tennis has a weird scoring system. Point, game, set, match. This leads to lots of excitement, as mini-dramas unfold near the end of many games and sets. But it can also lead to unfair results. The better player sometimes loses. … Continued

  • A new year’s new look at the birthday paradox

    If you are in a room containing 30 people, here is a good bet for you: Say that at least two will share the same birthday (day and month, not necessarily year). You will win the bet over 70% of … Continued