Early in the COVID-19 pandemic I saw some data implying there were of the order of 30,000 people alive in the UK who would have been expected to die in the previous two flu seasons, but who didn’t die as both flu seasons were very mild. These people are likely to have been predominantly elderly,… Continue Reading and comment
Voluntary exposure to exit COVID-19 lockdown
It seems that the government is struggling to agree a plan to relax the drastic lockdown that is presently in place in response to COVID-19 in the UK. Maybe a new option is worth considering. I call it voluntary exposure (or controlled infection), and have just done a simple first analysis which shows that voluntary… Continue Reading and comment
US Open tennis scoring gives worse players a bigger boost than at Wimbledon
Just before Wimbledon I wrote a blog post showing how the weird scoring system in tennis makes it more likely that the worse player will win a match there than if the scoring system were purely based on the number of points won. For both men and women, the chances of the worse player are… Continue Reading and comment
Feeling the heat…
The 2018 UK heatwave prompted me to write this short summary of where we are now and what we can do about it: Scientists say that the heatwave scorching the UK, northern Europe and Japan was made more than twice as likely by climate change, as was the last major European heatwave, which killed tens… Continue Reading and comment
Anyone for tennis?
Tennis has a weird scoring system. Point, game, set, match. This leads to lots of excitement, as mini-dramas unfold near the end of many games and sets. But it can also lead to unfair results. The better player sometimes loses. If tennis had a more straightforward scoring system, like basketball or cricket, just totting up… Continue Reading and comment
A new year’s new look at the birthday paradox
If you are in a room containing 30 people, here is a good bet for you: Say that at least two will share the same birthday (day and month, not necessarily year). You will win the bet over 70% of the time. Even if there are only 23 people in the room you will win… Continue Reading and comment
Valuing climate damages
The US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) has just released a new report about the social cost of carbon dioxide (SCCO2), described by one economist as ‘the most important number that you’ve never heard of”. The report is the result of many months of work by dozens of experts, and comes in at about 380… Continue Reading and comment
The social cost of carbon under President Trump
The Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) has been one of the main pillars of the EPA’s strategy to tackle the US’s contribution to climate change. According to a letter leaked this week, that looks set to change. Tom Pyle, the man leading Trump’s transition team of the US Dept of Energy apparently believes that ‘if… Continue Reading and comment
A proportionate response to Trump’s climate plans
During the US election campaign, Donald Trump said that he would dismantle the country’s domestic climate change policies, and withdraw the US from international climate agreements, most notably the Paris agreement which came into force earlier this month. In the week since he became President-Elect, he has given every indication that he is serious in… Continue Reading and comment
Hinkley C: Do climate benefits make it a good deal after all?
On Monday this week, Matt Ridley published a blog in the Times claiming that the projected £30bn public subsidy for Hinkley C is too high a price to pay for the reductions in CO2 emissions that it will provide. The Times published my letter pointing out that he should not have used today’s social cost of CO2 in… Continue Reading and comment