Why BP’s 2015 energy outlook is so scary

Earlier this week, BP published its 2015 Energy Outlook which shows fossil-fuel CO2 emissions growing by 25% by 2035. What do BP’s emission figures imply for the climate change impacts that we would be committed to, if they were to come about? Suppose we were able to wave a magic wand and make all CO2 emissionsContinue Reading and comment

Existential risks: Climate Change and Superintelligence

Nick Bostrom’s new book, Superintelligence, is a fascinating read for anyone interested in existential risks. I imagine that includes most people concerned with climate change. Marty Weitzman’s analysis and my own calculations make it clear that a substantial part of the expected impact of climate change come from catastrophes we would face if the world turns outContinue Reading and comment

A new economic model of climate change?

Today, Simon Dietz and Nick Stern (D&S) of the LSE released a new working paper. They make a few simple changes to Bill Nordhaus’s DICE model. The most important are that they allow for a range of climate sensitivities, and the possibility that climate change could cause catastrophic damages if the Earth’s temperature were toContinue Reading and comment

Has the treasury omitted £300 million per year of extra climate impacts from its fuel duty reduction calculations?

Today the Treasury published its analysis of the dynamic effects of fuel duty reductions. The headline message of its analysis is that ‘these reductions in duty will increase GDP by between 0.3 and 0.5 per cent in the long-term’. Apart from a single short paragraph (section 3.25), the report does not mention pollution. It does not mentionContinue Reading and comment

Extreme Weather, Economics and the Arctic

Last Friday, the Guardian published a short piece by two colleagues and me in its EcoAudit ‘Why has British weather been so bad?’ Here is the complete piece that we sent to the Guardian, which includes a bit more about the scientific programme which is just starting to try to understand and better model theContinue Reading and comment