The BBC today reported a new US China deal to phase out HFCs, and claimed that it ‘could, by itself, curb global temperatures by 0.5 degrees Celsius. No small achievement.’ The White House Press release says the deal could ‘potentially reduce some 90 gigatons of CO2 equivalent by 2050, equal to roughly two years worth of current global… Continue Reading and comment
How do the new estimates of transient climate response affect the social cost of CO2?
A new paper by Otto et al in Nature Geoscience has made an updated estimate of the transient climate response (TCR) implied by the climate change we have observed from 1970 to 2009. It finds the TCR to lie in the range 0.7–2.5 °C, with a best estimate of 1.4 °C. This is somewhat lower than… Continue Reading and comment
The extra climate impacts of melting permafrost
UNEP today published a short report on the Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost. Although it contains a few estimates of the possible economic impacts in arctic communities, amounting to $3 – 6 billion, it does not contain any estimates of the far greater likely impacts around the world from the addition of many Megatonnes (Mt) of greenhouse gases… Continue Reading and comment
What is wrong with Lilley?
The Global Warming Policy foundation today published a pamphlet WHAT IS WRONG WITH STERN? The Failings of the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change by Peter Lilley MP. Lilley criticises ‘Stern’s selective emphasis on alarmist interpretations and downplaying of uncertainties’ (p4). Richard Tol in his foreword claims that ’Lilley also reveals that the errors are systematic and… Continue Reading and comment
Black magic over green taxes has a silver lining
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) states quite confidently that in 2011, the UK Government received £43.3 billion from environmental taxes. But yesterday, HM Treasury stated just as confidently that in 2011/12 the actual revenue raised from environmental taxes was £3.1 billion, a drop of more than 90% from the ONS figure. What… Continue Reading and comment
Good citizen dilemma
This morning, as I was leaving home on my bike, I met an agitated courier delivery driver carrying a large parcel. It was for a neighbour who lives four doors away, and the driver asked if i would take it for them. I said that I didn’t know them, and the driver interpreted this as a… Continue Reading and comment
How cold is May really?
In the middle of April 2012, Piers Corbyn of Weather Action made this dramatic forecast for England’s weather: The coldest or near coldest May for 100 years in Central and East parts with a record run of bitter Northerly winds. *Confidence of E / SE England mean temps: Coldest in 100yrs 80% The early part of… Continue Reading and comment
Did dinosaurs warm the world?
Possibly, by up to one and a half degrees. This recent paper in the journal Current Biology claims that the digestive tracts of dinosaurs emitted 520 Mtonnes of methane a year, comparable to the total modern-day methane emissions. The authors suggested that this could have been an important factor in warm Mesozoic climates. Unfortunately, they… Continue Reading and comment